Artificial intelligence and tasks – How automation subsidies effect labor demand – evidence from Asia

Technological change has tremendously affected labor markets in the past. Artificial intelligence might affect labor demand in opposing directions. Using a Synthetic- Difference-in-Difference design, estimated with a Poisson Regression, we show the effects of Asian automation subsidies on job creation. We document an increase in labor demand for AI specific jobs in addition to increasing costs. This could mean that firms increase their hiring or redistribute productivity gains. Moreover, automation subsidies also affect the task content of production. We find an increase of around 4 new tasks for low AI exposed occupations. Finally, we document a positive association between AI specfic jobs and expertise, while finding an increasing level of expertise results to a declining amount of new tasks.

You can find the current draft here.

Brüll, Eduard, Samuel Mäurer and Davud Rostam-Afschar (2025), Beliefs About Bots: How Employers Plan for AI in White-Collar Work, ZEW Discussion Paper Nr. 25-057, Mannheim. 

We provide experimental evidence on how employers adjust expectations to automation risk in high-skill, white-collar work. Using a randomized information intervention among tax advisors in Germany, we show that firms systematically underestimate automatability. Information provision raises risk perceptions, especially for routine-intensive roles. Yet, it leaves short-run hiring plans unchanged. Instead, updated beliefs increase productivity and financial expectations with minor wage adjustments, implying within-firm inequality like limited rent-sharing. Employers also anticipate new tasks in legal tech, compliance, and AI interaction, and report higher training and adoption intentions.